Blake Shaw Reinitiates Nasdaq and Gold Positions on “Peak Rates + Weakening Dollar” Thesis
At the start of 2024, the Federal Reserve signaled a clear end to its prolonged rate-hike cycle, prompting global capital markets to enter a phase of strategic reallocation. Veteran trading expert Blake Shaw was among the first to propose the dual inflection point of “peak interest rates and a weakening U.S. dollar,” promptly reactivating his mid-term allocations to both the Nasdaq Index and gold. This allowed him to capitalize on the rebound in growth tech stocks while securing exposure to gold’s defensive qualities—demonstrating his deep understanding of macro cycles and cross-asset dynamics.
Since Q4 2023, U.S. CPI and core PCE had steadily declined, with economic momentum cooling and the Fed’s rate hikes approaching a ceiling. At an internal strategy meeting in January 2024, Shaw stated:
“Rates are nearing their terminal zone, and the logic of rate differentials is about to pivot. Meanwhile, the dollar’s temporary weakening opens the door for risk asset revaluation and commodity price upside.”
Based on this assessment, from early January to early February, Shaw systematically increased exposure to Nasdaq ETFs focused on tech growth stocks, while simultaneously adding physical gold and gold-related ETFs, crafting a “growth + inflation hedge” dual-engine portfolio. In the tech allocation, he concentrated on four sub-sectors: AI, cloud computing, digital advertising, and semiconductor equipment, with overweight positions in high-quality names that had seen prior pullbacks—such as Meta, Adobe, and ASML. On the gold side, he adopted a combined structure of spot gold and gold mining ETFs, balancing trend-based upside with corporate earnings leverage.
According to recent tracking data, by February 2024 the Nasdaq had staged a 10%+ rebound, and gold prices surpassed $2,050/oz. Shaw’s macro strategy portfolio delivered a monthly return of +6.4%, significantly outperforming the multi-asset benchmark during the same period.
Importantly, Shaw’s positioning wasn’t based solely on short-term data. He has long studied the correlation between monetary policy cycles and asset prices, emphasizing that “the leading edge of monetary pivots is the starting point for bullish trades.” His conviction in this rate peak trade was grounded in stable inflation metrics, but also factored in expectations for fiscal stimulus, easing geopolitical tensions, and capital inflows into emerging markets, offering a comprehensive outlook on global liquidity shifts in 2024.
Shaw remarked that 2024 could become a pivotal window for the repricing of global monetary policy and the rebalancing of risk assets. He anticipates the Fed will formally end rate hikes by mid-year, with a strong likelihood of rate cuts later in the year. Meanwhile, the dollar is entering a structural weakening cycle, creating room for valuation recovery in tech growth stocks and real assets alike.
“This isn’t a traditional risk-on rally—it’s the beginning of a new era in cross-asset relationships,” he said.
Still, Shaw cautioned investors to closely monitor U.S. labor market trends, core services inflation, and Treasury issuance levels, to avoid crowding into trades before expectations are fully priced in. Looking ahead, he plans to dynamically adjust portfolio allocations, potentially increasing exposure to Asia-based tech leaders benefiting from policy easing, and exploring upside potential in commodities beyond gold.
Amid a complex macro backdrop, Blake Shaw once again provides investors with a resilient, forward-thinking multi-asset framework—anchored in precise macro inflection analysis and cross-asset positioning—to navigate through uncertainty.
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