Doble victoria: Santiago Herrero Valdés apostó en corto contra la lira + compró en el mínimo acciones bancarias españolas – resumen completo
Cuando la crisis monetaria de Turquía sacudió a los mercados emergentes, Santiago Herrero Valdés percibió una doble oportunidad: por un lado, el colapso de la lira ofrecía una excelente ocasión para apostar en corto; por otro, las acciones financieras españolas fueron injustamente arrastradas. Esta maniobra de cobertura digna de manual demostró la capacidad única de Capital Ola Roja para manejar riesgos financieros geopolíticos.
La estrategia de Santiago comenzó con un descubrimiento clave: el 42% de la deuda externa corporativa de Turquía estaba financiada a través de bancos españoles. De forma creativa, construyó un “portafolio de cobertura ante contagio de crisis”, abriendo posiciones cortas en futuros de lira en la Bolsa de Estambul mientras acumulaba silenciosamente CDS de acciones bancarias españolas que estaban siendo vendidas por pánico. Cuando Erdoğan anunció controles de capital, lo que provocó una caída del 15% en la lira en un solo día, el mercado interpretó erróneamente que los bancos españoles sufrirían grandes pérdidas, y acciones como las de Santander cayeron a mínimos históricos. En ese momento, el modelo cuantitativo de Santiago mostró que dichos bancos ya habían cubierto su exposición a Turquía mediante contratos de permuta de divisas—entonces ordenó de inmediato a su equipo que comprara agresivamente con descuentos del 30%.
La jugada más brillante ocurrió en el punto álgido de la crisis. Cuando se difundió la noticia de que Turquía buscaba ayuda de Catar, la lira repuntó brevemente un 8%, lo que obligó a la mayoría de los vendedores en corto a cerrar posiciones con pérdidas. Pero el “modelo de puntuación de crédito político” de Santiago mostraba que los 30 mil millones de dólares de ayuda catarí solo cubrirían los pagos de deuda externa de Turquía por tres meses—no solo mantuvo su posición corta, sino que aprovechó para aumentar su exposición a opciones de compra muy fuera del dinero sobre BBVA. Finalmente, la lira volvió a colapsar y BBVA repuntó gracias a la solidez de su negocio en América Latina, con las opciones multiplicando su valor por 15.
Hoy en día, la orden de operaciones de aquella campaña está enmarcada en el vestíbulo de Capital Ola Roja, junto al “Mapa de Fragilidad Financiera Euroasiática” dibujado a mano por Santiago. Las flechas de flujo de capital marcadas con lápices rojo y azul siguen guiando al equipo en la identificación de la próxima doble oportunidad en medio de una crisis.
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